Climate Scenarios and their Influence on the European Sardine (Sardina pilchardus, Walbaum 1792) Fishery Along the Moroccan Coast of the South Alboran Sea

Climate change has a significant impact on regional and species levels, leading to a significant drop in biomass in the Southern Alboran Sea (SAS). Hence, research should be focused on determining the regional impact of environmental fluctuations on major marine species. The European sardine (Sardina Pilchardus) plays an important role in marine ecology and contributes significantly to the region's economy. The present study revealed the monthly fluctuations of sardine fishery on the Moroccan coast of the Southern Alboran Sea during the period 2009-2021, its relationship with four oceanographic variables (SST, SLA, Phy, and Zoo), and future predictions using two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) scenarios (2.6 and 8.5) for the period 2022-2100. Generalized additive models (GAMs) were built to investigate the links between environmental factors and the species' landing per unit effort (LPUE) and relative effort, and hence analyze the possible consequences of climate change. The GAM model could account for 71.4%  and 61.2% of the variance in the LPUE and effort, respectively. Under the RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, the expected LPUE and effort of the European sardine showed different patterns. In addition, the predicted future potential landing for the period 2022-2100 shows a reduction. According to the study,  fishing pressure must be kept at a low and healthy level to maintain a long-term sustainable fishery and mitigate the impact of climate change on the European sardines.