Analytical Study of the Current and the Future Situation of Fishery Resources in Qaroun and Al-Rayyan Lakes in Fayoum Governorate, Egypt.

The main objective of this work is identifying both the status and the future situation of fishery resources in Qaroun and Al-Rayyan lakes through the study of the chronological development of fish production and the most important economic and environmental factors affecting the fish production in these fisheries during the period (1995- 2015). Moreover, estimating the Maximum Sustainable Production, the Allowed Maximum Fishing Limit Rate to achieve equilibrium between production and fishing rates. Also, for studying of the most important economic and environmental factors, which affect the fish production from Qaroun and Al-Rayyan Lakes for the capability of achieving production efficiency within those fisheries, and predication the fish production of those fisheries within the period (2020-2025). The most significant results concluded by the study were as follows:
The fish production of Qaroun and Al-Rayyan Lakes have increased with a statistically annual rate of about 7.7%, 8.7% respectively, through the period of the study. The production surplus application model  (Schaefer) results showed that within the period (1995-2015), the Maximum Sustainable Production (MSY) in Qaroun and Al-Rayyan Lakes had reached 3653.59 and 2369.23 tons per year, respectively by fishing effort, which reached about 343 and 127 fishing boats respectively. Moreover, the research has shown an increase in the actual production volume more than the Maximum Sustainable Production within the period of the study in Qaroun and Al-Rayyan Lakes and that the actual fishing effort exceeds the optimum fishing effort in these lakes, which explains how these Lakes are suffering from the phenomena of Illegal Fishing Activities.
-The total productivity of Lake Qaroun reached about (-1.91) and about(-0.253) in Al-Rayyan lakes, which indicate that the fish production in these lakes is in the third stage; uneconomic stage. In addition, these results concurred with many studies that confirmed the contamination of the lake’s water with chemicals and pesticides due to the industrial, agricultural and sanitary sewage.
Finaly, it turned out that the expected volume of fish production in Qaroun Lake for the year 2020 and 2025 will be about 2992.7, 3676.4 tons respectively, with an increase of 21%, 48.6% than the average fish production within the period (1995-2015). The expected fish production in Al-Rayyan lakes is about 5352.52, 6597.31 tons for the years 2020 and 2025, respectively  with 17.92 %, 23.3% increase than the fish production of the year 2015.