Document Type : Original Article
Authors
1
Jln. Tol Ciawi No.1, Ciawi-Bogor, Jawa Barat, Indonesia
2
Department of Law, Faculty of Law, Universitas Pakuan
3
Department of Management, Faculty of Economic and Business, Sang Bumi Ruwa Jurai Unversity
4
Department of Marine Science, Faculty of Agriculture, Sultan Ageng Tirtayasa University
5
Department of Agribusiness, Faculty of Agriculture, Djuanda University
6
Department of Law, Graduated School, Universitas Pakuan
7
Department of Law, Faculty of Law, Pakuan University
Abstract
The coral reefs are the most commercially and ecologically significant coastal ecosystems, yet human activity, especially vessel-grounded operations and environmental stresses are posing a growing threat to their survival. To assess the effectiveness of linear and nonlinear models in valuing coral reef ecosystem services, this study builds on earlier research by combining data (2017-2025) from the Ministry of Environment, Ministry of Maritime Affairs and Fisheries, Ministry of Forestry, and associated agencies. The dependent variable is the ecosystem services value (V, millions of Rupiah/m²/year), whereas the independent variables are the year of observation (t), coral reef quality (Q, %), and distance from the shore (D, km). According to the analysis's findings, the linear model yielded an R-square value of 0.2193 (Significance F= 0.0230), and the value of ecosystem services was strongly influenced by coral reef quality (P= 0.01998) and distance from the coast (P= 0.04918). The non-linear model, on the other hand, did worse, with no factors significant at the 95% confidence level and an R-square of 0.1007 (Significance F= 0.2523). Model performance decreased as temporal scope increased in comparison with the 2019 study, highlighting the shortcomings of simple regression in long-term valuation. To increase forecast accuracy, this study suggests applying more complex non-linear techniques, developing spatiotemporal models, and integrating external variables (such as human activity and environmental dynamics). These results highlight how crucial an adaptive valuation framework is to bolstering coral reef management and promoting evidence-based conservation policy.
Keywords
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