et al., A. (2025). Integrating Thermal Resilience Thresholds and Endocrine Disruption Models to Predict Climate-Driven Reproductive Collapse in Clarias gariepinus Under Extreme Weather Events. Egyptian Journal of Aquatic Biology and Fisheries, 29(4), 1521-1539. doi: 10.21608/ejabf.2025.443717
Asuquo et al.. "Integrating Thermal Resilience Thresholds and Endocrine Disruption Models to Predict Climate-Driven Reproductive Collapse in Clarias gariepinus Under Extreme Weather Events". Egyptian Journal of Aquatic Biology and Fisheries, 29, 4, 2025, 1521-1539. doi: 10.21608/ejabf.2025.443717
et al., A. (2025). 'Integrating Thermal Resilience Thresholds and Endocrine Disruption Models to Predict Climate-Driven Reproductive Collapse in Clarias gariepinus Under Extreme Weather Events', Egyptian Journal of Aquatic Biology and Fisheries, 29(4), pp. 1521-1539. doi: 10.21608/ejabf.2025.443717
et al., A. Integrating Thermal Resilience Thresholds and Endocrine Disruption Models to Predict Climate-Driven Reproductive Collapse in Clarias gariepinus Under Extreme Weather Events. Egyptian Journal of Aquatic Biology and Fisheries, 2025; 29(4): 1521-1539. doi: 10.21608/ejabf.2025.443717
Integrating Thermal Resilience Thresholds and Endocrine Disruption Models to Predict Climate-Driven Reproductive Collapse in Clarias gariepinus Under Extreme Weather Events
Climate change-induced thermal stress and the mobilization of endocrine-disrupting chemicals (EDCs) pose synergistic threats to aquatic ecosystems. However, their combined impacts on hypothalamic-pituitary-gonadal (HPG) axis function remain poorly quantified. This study investigated thermal–EDC interactions using experimental thermal gradients (25–40 °C), LC-MS/MS steroid profiling, and machine learning models to predict reproductive collapse risk. Results identified a critical threshold at 35°C for aromatase suppression (P< 0.01), leading to a 60% reduction in estradiol synthesis and inducing gamete apoptosis (LT₅₀ = 4.2 h at 40°C). Monsoon simulations revealed a 3.2-fold increase in BPA bioavailability, correlating with serotonin depletion (r² = 0.78) and spawning failure. Machine learning projections under CMIP6 scenarios forecast an 18–22% decline in gonadosomatic index (GSI) by 2040, with tryptophan hydroxylase emerging as the primary resilience biomarker (importance score: 0.92). These findings establish a predictive framework for HPG axis collapse and underscore the urgent need to integrate thermal–EDC monitoring into aquaculture management strategies, particularly under IPCC SSP5-8.5 projections.
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